July 2025 - Precious Metal Market News

Gold Market Update – July 2025

In July, gold experienced a notable pullback from the end-of-June closing price of approximately £2,412 per ounce. Throughout the month, it steadily climbed, reaching a peak of £2,544 per ounce on Wednesday, 23rd July. However, the market later saw a decline, with prices falling below £2,500. By the end of the month, gold edged slightly higher from its three-week lows. But the question remains. What caused this shift?

Figure 1 – Price of Gold (£) in July

What Caused the Dip in Gold Prices?

One key factor for the dip in the gold price was the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting held on 29–30 July 2025. This meeting was a pivotal moment for the market and its investors. US President Donald Trump applied pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates ahead of the meeting.

The Fed was faced with several challenges: unemployment at 4.1%, core inflation at 2.7% (above the 2% target), and the escalating trade war initiated by Trump, which further complicated the decision-making process. On Wednesday July 30th the Fed voted to keep rates steady at 4.25% - 4.50%. The Fed chairman, Jerome Powell announced that there is a hesitation to cut with the tariff uncertainty.

United States Gold Price Forecasts

As of now, gold is trading at approximately $3,330 per ounce in the United States. Analysts and financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, forecast that prices could rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and potentially reach $4,000 by mid-2026. These predictions are largely attributed to sustained central bank demand and increased investment through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which measures US consumer sentiment regarding the overall economy and their personal financial situation, has risen to 97.2, up from June’s revised figure of 95.2.

Figure 2 – Price of Gold ($) in July

Recent Developments In Trump's Trade War

On 27th July 2025, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached an agreement on tariffs and trade. Both sides committed to a US tariff ceiling of 15% on EU goods. From 1st August, the US will apply this maximum tariff to most EU exports.

Trump has also been in talks with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, discussing trade deals with tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%. Current tariff threats have been directed at several countries, including Cambodia (36%), Myanmar (40%), Brazil (50%), Mexico (30%), and India (25%), among others.

Silver Market Insights

Following silver’s breakout month in June, July continued the upward trend, reaching a 14-year high of $39.52 per ounce and £29.17 in British pounds. Over the past year, silver has risen by an impressive 30% per ounce in sterling. Its performance so far this year has even outpaced the FTSE 100, which is up 10%, and the S&P 500, up 17%.

Figure 3 – Price of Silver (£) in July

What's Currently Affecting The Price?

Since Wednesday, 23rd July, silver has hovered near two-week lows, as investors remain cautious in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. Despite this dip, silver continues to trade at historically high levels, raising the question: could August bring a new all-time high in both US dollars and British pounds?

In a significant boost to silver demand, China added 212.2 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first half of 2025, bringing its total installed capacity to over 1.1 terawatts.

Looking Ahead

With supply continuing to fall short and demand rising across both industrial applications and investment markets, silver’s bull run appears well supported. For those seeking a tangible asset with growth potential, silver stands out as a promising option. According to the Silver Institute, silver mining output is expected to increase by 2% this year. However, with a projected shortfall of 117 million ounces and strong demand across multiple industries, prices may well continue to rise.

Platinum Market Insights

Platinum made further gains in July, reaching a high of just over £1,100 per ounce on Friday, 18th July. This platinum increase marked a 12-year high. Notably, in the first half of the year, it was the top-performing commodity, even outperforming gold, which was one of the best-performing assets with a total increase of 40%.

Figure 4 – Price of Platinum (£) in July

In the United States, the Senate introduced a bill to bring forward the end date of the 45V hydrogen tax credit to 1st January 2028. This was five years earlier than previously planned. The bill, expected to be signed into law on Friday, 4th July 2025, is part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to roll back former President Biden’s green energy incentives.

It will slash $488 billion in green energy spending over the next decade. While the move reduces long-term support, it could accelerate near-term investment in hydrogen technologies, where platinum plays a critical role in fuel cell and electrolysis systems.

In other platinum-related news, a major mining company, Zimplats, has completed a new facility that has tripled its annual processing capacity. The upgraded plant now enables Zimplats to handle over 1 million ounces of platinum and related metals each year, helping to meet growing global demand. Meanwhile, China has rapidly emerged as the leading market for platinum bar and coin investment, accounting for 64% of global demand in 2024, up significantly from just 11% in 2019.

Platinum could be the investment you're overlooking, with significant gains made over the past year. Around 40% of global platinum demand comes from the automotive industry, highlighting its critical role in industrial applications.

Conclusion: What to Look Out For in August

Stay tuned for our August update, and subscribe to our mailing list to receive timely insights into the world of precious metals.

• President Donald Trump’s 1st August tariff deadline is looming. This could have a significant impact on future Federal Reserve rate decisions and the price of precious metals.
• Inflation in the United States will be closely monitored by investors and the Fed, as the upcoming tariffs could have a significant impact.